If you had a plan for retirement, chances are it has been up-ended in the latest market meltdown. As I mentioned in this retirement blog, Retirement-minded savers and retirees that committed their hard earned money to the “market” have been on a roller coaster ride since 2000. First came the dot.com craze that drove stock prices to dizzy heights. The bubble burst and stock prices sunk dramatically with tech stocks as a group dropping 80%. From 2003 until late 2007, the market trended upward and came close to its inflation adjusted pre-2000 level before again plummeting dramatically. From late 2007 until March 2009, the market shrank by 50%, abruptly surged upward by 30% and for the past two months has vacillated around this plateau. Keep in mind that a 50% loss means a 100% gain is needed to get back to breakeven. Where will the market go from here?
There is only one thing certain about the market: no one knows its future direction. Of course there are always those that make reasoned forecasts, but to my knowledge there is not now, nor has there ever been, anyone who has consistently predicted the future direction of the market. Forecasts are simply “educated guesses” and as such are wrong as often as they are right. Guessing is not a good way to invest your retirement money, unless you are prepared to lose it. Thus, what should you do if your retirement money is in the market?
Start by asking yourself: What am I trying to accomplish? If your answer is “to make a gain” then you must determine if you “can afford a loss” because you have a chance for either. If you can’t afford losses, then the market is not the place for your money. You can keep in the market that part of your money you can afford to lose or don’t plan to use. You’ve been told that “in the long run you’ll do just fine in the market”. The questions are: Do you have a “long run”? Exactly how long is the “long run”? As this is being written in June 2009, the DJIA [widely used barometer of the market] closed at 8750 – exactly the same closing level as in March 1998. Before accounting for inflation, that’s eleven years without growth. If inflation is taken into account, you would have lost 40% of the purchasing power of your retirement money during these eleven years. For the retirement- minded, eleven years – or one-third of an average retirement – is the “long run” and they’ve not done “just fine”. It could get better or worse going forward.
If your objective is to make sure you do not outlive your money, you could be in the wrong place. Instead of measuring how “tall” your money stands, you need to focus on how “long” it will last. Ideally you’d like to have a guaranteed lifetime income you simply cannot outlive. There is only one place to get such a guarantee, regardless of what the market does in the future. That one place is the industry that manages the risk of your home being destroyed, car being wrecked, medical emergencies leaving you bankrupt, and more. That’s right: an insurance company that manages the risk of outliving your money. You can cover this risk by putting some of your retirement money into an annuity with a Guaranteed Lifetime Income Benefit rider. This option is safe, easy to understand and eliminates the risk of living too long.
So if you’re still at Point A and have made no adjustments to your retirement for the new financial landscape, you need a Plan B. Don’t waste another day; get with your financial advisor and review your investments, retirement plans and lifestyle. This will move you from Point A to Plan B… you’ll sleep better and have a much better retirement.
Shelby J. Smith, Ph.D.
June 2009
TheRetirementPros.com
The Roth IRA has existed for ten years but is under utilized by financial advisors and retirees alike. Converting your retirement money to a Roth IRA holds outstanding potential, but unfortunately many that need it most cannot qualify and most that can qualify have bypassed the opportunity. You can qualify if your total annual income is not more than $100,000. While higher income individuals cannot currently convert qualified retirement money to a Roth IRA, the income limit will be suspended in 2010. If you can qualify now, you need to immediately check into this opportunity. If you do not currently qualify, now is the time to start preparing for 2010 when you can. Following are suggestions you may find helpful.
Most of us measure our retirement money by how “tall” it is rather than how “long” it is. It’s not how much money you’ve got that’s important, but how long it will last. Because of uncertainties like inflation, taxes, investment losses, emergencies and more, retirees don’t know how long they might live; thus, it is hard to determine how long the “tall money” will last. This is why retirees’ greatest fear is outliving their money, referred to as “longevity risk”. If the “tall money” is laid down over the retirement years it becomes “long money” and longevity risk can be managed. How can this be done?
There has been a lot in the press recently about the solvency of Social Security and how it could go broke by 2016. As has been previously mentioned in this Retirement Blog, seniors and late boomers are concerned about their future Social Security benefits and want answers. The following will shed some light on the matter.
Outliving their money is the greatest fear of most retirees. Because of massive market losses since 2007, high and rising medical costs and more taxes & inflation as fallout from the unprecedented federal deficit spending, retiree fear is at an all-time high. But for the stronger gender, females, it is especially alarming, because they are expected to live longer and more likely to encounter financial problems late in life.
Many Americans of yesteryear relied on employers to provide a defined benefit pension at retirement. They were guaranteed a lifetime income whose amount was based upon how long they worked for the employer and their ending salary. For example, a defined benefit pension plan might pay a retired worker 2% of their last year’s salary for every year over twenty they worked for the employer. This meant a 40-year employee could expect to receive 80% of their final year’s income as a lifetime pension at retirement. The income would continue for their lifetime and then the surviving spouse might be entitled to reduced income until death.
When leaving an employer at retirement, changing jobs, down-sizing or starting your own business, leave behind only what belongs to your ex-employer. That means not forgetting your retirement plan money! About forty percent of departing employees, ages 60 to 65, leave their retirement money behind in former employers’ plans. They cite several reasons: loyalty, hassle of transferring, fear of managing the money or bad advice. There are many good reasons why you should take your retirement money with you, but we’ll discuss only the very important ones.
As I mentioned in a previous retirement blog post, at the end of the day, all retirement money is treated in one of three ways: taxable, tax-deferred or tax-free. Taxable income is taxed during the year in which it is received, but can also be tax-favored if from capital gains, dividends, Social Security, etc. Interest rates on tax-free municipal bonds are lower than their taxable counterparts; thus, taxes are implicit and municipals are in reality the same as taxable. Tax-deferred earnings are not taxed as income now but will be in the future when withdrawn. If passed to the next generation, the deferred taxes will be paid by the beneficiary or the estate of the deceased. Tax-free income may have been taxed earlier but is not again taxed when withdrawn. The best example of tax-free income is the Roth IRA.
As I mentioned in my retirement blog, the greatest fear of most retirees is the risk of longevity: outliving their money. The meltdown of retirement accounts, rising medical costs, uncertain entitlement programs and higher taxes have added to the risk. Facing 30 years of retirement living on past savings and Social Security benefits is a scary reality. What can be done?
At the end of the day, all of your retirement money is treated in one of three ways: taxable, tax-deferred or tax-free. Taxable income is taxed during the year in which it is received, e.g., pension or investment income. Taxable income may also be tax-favored if from capital gains, dividends or certain other activities. Earnings from tax-free municipal bonds are lower than their taxable counterparts; thus, taxes are implicit, so put these bonds in the taxable classification. For many retirees, Social Security benefits are taxable also; as I mentioned before in my Retirement Blog. Tax-deferred earnings are not taxed as income now but will be in the future when withdrawn and used, e.g., IRA, 401(k) and annuity earnings. If passed to the next generation, the deferred taxes will be paid by the beneficiary or the estate of the deceased. Tax-free income may have been taxed earlier but is not again taxed when withdrawn and used, for example money take from a Roth IRA. 

